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Aluminum market situation discussion and research sharing: a

inputtime: 2018-07-13 09:01
Air pollution prevention and control plan for Beijing, tianjin and hebei and surrounding areas in 2017
 
The 2017 air pollution prevention and control work plan for Beijing, tianjin and hebei and the surrounding areas requests aluminum industry chain enterprises in the "2+26" cities around Beijing to spend the wrong peak in the winter heating season. The production limit of electrolytic aluminium plant is more than 30%. The production of alumina is limited to about 30% in terms of consumption line. All carbon enterprises that fail to reach the special emission limit shall cease production, and those that reach the special emission limit shall limit their production to more than 50%, which shall be calculated as the consumption line.
 
Compared with the draft for consultation, the production restriction conditions of alumina enterprises in the formal printing and issuing documents have been relaxed. The closure of alumina has been reduced from 50% to 30%.
 
According to baichuan statistics, the total capacity reached 3150 tons. It accounts for 40.8 per cent of the country's total production capacity, and a 30 per cent cut would reduce capacity by 9.45m tonnes, or 12 per cent, as alumina companies are now almost fully producing and consuming.
 
According to baichuan capital, the total capacity reached 1,196 tons. It accounts for 28.1% of China's total production capacity. As the opening rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is also at a high level, a 30% reduction will reduce the production capacity by 3.588 million tons and 8.43%.
 
Thinking to or heating season lasts about 120 days, Beijing heating time is: on November 15, beginning to March 15 to complete the following year, equivalent to think to or heating season lasts about 120 days, Beijing heating time is: on November 15, beginning to the following year after March 15, reduced the total output of alumina affect about 3.9% of about 3.15 million tons. The annual output of electrolytic aluminium affects about 2.77% and 1.17 million tons. Relatively speaking, as the consumption of alumina is concentrated in the north China region, the overall production of alumina is much reduced, with a direct gap of nearly 1 million tons of alumina.
 
Guidance on the application of comprehensive standards to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity in accordance with laws and regulations
 
Sixteen departments, including the ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and reform commission, jointly formulated and issued the guidance opinions on the application of comprehensive standards to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity in accordance with the law. Opinion is put forward to iron and steel, coal, cement, electrolytic aluminium, flat glass industry as the key point, through improving the comprehensive standard system, strict normalized law enforcement and compulsive standard, prompting a group of energy consumption, environmental protection, safe and technology can not meet the specification and consumption of unqualified products or elimination capacity (the above is the backward production capacity), in accordance with the shut down according to regulation, excess capacity contradictions.
 
Five new features:
 
First, more and more prominent on the wrist of elimination by law - strengthening laws and regulations, strengthening energy conservation monitoring, environmental law enforcement
 
Second, more and more efforts have been made to promote synergy among norms and norms -- in terms of energy consumption, environmental protection, quality, safety and technology
 
Third, greater disclosure of information on surveillance - the withdrawal of outdated capacity announced on government websites
 
Fourth, credit punishment has become more prominent in the restraint mechanism - land supply, financial support, tax management and other aspects
 
Fifth, the industry is increasingly highlighting overcapacity and environmental management key industries - mentioned electrolytic aluminum
 
Capital support
 
Capital end: the main raw materials estimated high concussion, auxiliary materials and other large increase
 
According to SMM, aluminum fluoride rose to 8,500-8,700 yuan per ton this week, up about 1,400 yuan per ton from early February. Understanding differences with us in research and understanding, and it is expected to continue to rise in the later period:
 
At present, the market of hydrofluoric acid is better than that of aluminum fluoride, and chemical plants prefer to consume hydrofluoric acid rather than aluminum fluoride.
 
The beijing-tianjin-hebei environmental inspection has led to the suspension of production and production restrictions on a large number of fluorinated aluminum enterprises in henan and shandong provinces.
 
The northern fluorite mine factory started late due to cold weather and other reasons. Besides, the representatives of 11 fluorite enterprises in 11 provinces reached a consensus that the factory price of fluorite was more than 2000 yuan/ton. Fluorite, a fluorinated aluminium company, arrived at the factory in early February for only 1,600 yuan a ton.
 
According to SMM research, the production price of cryolite rose to 7,000-7,300 yuan/ton this week, up about 600 yuan/ton from last week. The reason for the increase is mainly due to the increase in the price of sodium fluoroaluminate provided by phosphate enterprises in yunnan and hubei.
 
Foreign aluminium lifts water
 
Three of the world's biggest aluminium consumers, South32Ltd, Rio tinto and rusal, offered $135 a tonne for the Japanese market in the april-june quarter, up 42 per cent from the first quarter, sources familiar with the matter said on Wednesday.
 
If this offer is accepted, it will be the second consecutive quarter of price increase. The current market boom in Europe and the us is surging, while strong domestic demand has kept Japanese aluminium stocks down from time to time.
 
It is a sign of continued panic in the international market for aluminium and is not consistent with the sharp fall in lme inventories.
 
Source: Bloomberg changjiang nonferrous metals network huatai futures research institute
 
Source: Bloomberg changjiang nonferrous metals network huatai futures research institute
 
Exports are expected to increase
 
At present, the price of aluminum is strong and weak, which is conducive to the export of enterprises
 
Foreign electrolytic aluminium is tight, so the inventory has continued to fall sharply this year
 
Prices have fallen sharply since peaking at the end of last year
 
The research understands that the export of enterprises has increased, but because the orders of foreign enterprises have been well planned, the possibility of spurt growth is unlikely
 
The output of electrolytic aluminium increased greatly
 
The output of electrolytic aluminium increased greatly
 
According to SMM, although only 28 consumption days were needed in February, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production rose to 2.838 million tons, up 21.1 percent year on year, and the total domestic electrolytic aluminum production in the first two months of this year reached 5.876 million tons, up 21.6 percent year on year.
 
Domestic electrolytic aluminum operation capacity of 37 million tons of approaching degree, year-on-year increase of nearly 7 million tons of production capacity, supply rising trend still 丌 see slow. At the end of February, China's annual production capacity increased by about 1 million tons compared with January. SMM estimates that march total domestic operation capacity still have 迚 step ascension space, march domestic electrolytic aluminum production is expected to increase to 3.155 million tons, year-on-year growth of 17.9%.
 
Source: China national bureau of statistics, huatai futures research institute
 
Source: China national bureau of statistics, huatai futures research institute
 
Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to increase
 
On the inventory side, it is still a large increase in domestic inventories, while LME inventories have fallen sharply.
 
According to SMM's statistics, the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory in the five places totaled 1.112 million tons, up 94 thousand tons from last Thursday.
 
On March 10, LME aluminum stocks fell 16275 tonnes to 2068525 tonnes, while the previous period saw an increase of 2072 tonnes to 191,777 tonnes.
 
Source: SHFESMM huatai futures research institute
 
Source: SHFESMM huatai futures research institute
 
Market deproductivity
 
The NDRC said there was no need to implement large-scale measures to reduce coal consumption in 2017, and vovovovovovofu, China's target for coal production capacity reduction this year, could be completed. However, it is also noted that the capacity of coal power generation will be expanded to coal power generation this year. The capacity of coal power generation will be 50 million kilowatts this year.
 
However, after the marketization and legalization of the non-ferrous industry, the production capacity has been reduced. At present, the administrative strength has been reduced.
 
Environmental protection has a greater impact downstream
 
Environmental protection has a great impact on small and medium-sized enterprises, because the previous environmental protection measures, or the measures to change coal to gas have failed.
 
However, it is understood from the investigation that orders are getting better in practice. At present, downstream processing enterprises are actively strengthening the establishment of environmental protection.
 
conclusion
 
In general, the recent increase in production and inventory has put pressure on prices in the near future, but the lower end is supported by capital and the expectation of a much stronger supply side change will benefit a long month, and the overall wide range will fluctuate. Now do much strength is stronger than short of energy, and the late production forecast is still in, is obvious surplus scene is still expected to get better, so the thoughts, the more the prices fell into complete asset to cash capital range, can consider the dips planning more single gradually.
 
Main research content
 
Main research content
 
Environmental protection production limitation and influence: large enterprises have less influence, small and medium-sized enterprises have greater influence (they did not make good environmental protection equipment at the early stage)
 
According to the 2017 air pollution prevention and control work plan for beijing-tianjin-hebei region and surrounding areas, alumina and electrolytic aluminum enterprises have said they will stop production in accordance with the rules
 
Reducing the impact of production: electrolytic aluminum recovery period long, high cost; It has little effect on alumina consumption equipment
 
Alumina price: the opinion of electrolytic aluminium and alumina enterprise do not differ, electrochemical aluminium enterprise is bullish, alumina enterprise thinks will decline in the near future on the contrary, but estimate the space below is not big
 
Coal: high shock
 
Anode carbon: prices are expected to continue to rise, but are not expected to limit consumption of electrolytic aluminum
 
Downstream order positive, but the henan region affected by the environmental protection, land utilization, aluminum ingots outbound were affected, is gradually improving, downstream or affected by the environmental protection to leak in the short term, but in the long run, order of transfer or the original data changes made to leak to the overall downstream demand.
 
Alumina status
 
Raw material:
 
Bauxite: import dependency will increase in the future
 
Coal price: high shock
 
Carbon: there used to be a carbon plant - now I'm in business
 
Understanding of late prices: think the price of alumina will fall, mainly small enterprises will pull low prices
 
Impact of production suspension:
 
Electrolytic aluminum recovery period is long, cost is high, alumina is much better, it has little influence on alumina consumption equipment
 
I will make a certain inventory in the early stage, after all, there is a long order, but it will not be very large, moderate adjustment
 
Environmental protection request: boiler-discharge request strict, old equipment renovation, a furnace 30-40 million
 
The emission of coal shall meet the standard.
 
Water - circulating water
 
Environmental protection response: the main use of natural gas at present, to improve the quality of coal, emissions can be qualified
 
Electrolytic aluminium condition
 
About the air pollution prevention and control plan:
 
The documents were not available until last Friday, and companies were skeptical, but the estimates were to be carried out
 
Central environmental protection group: march into zhengzhou, jiaozuo, anyang north yu, request strict
 
The main problem is that the flue gas emissions are not up to par - the equipment on the equipment
 
Jiaozuo has not been affected by the normal operation of consumption, both natural gas and small pollution
 
How does the heating season go down
 
According to the rule, 3 series stop 1 series, whether the resumption of production depends on the price and profit
 
Stop 4 months repair 3 months, the impact on the trough is big, can use 10 years or so before, now such a practice can only use 2-3 years
 
Environmental impact of power plants
 
The main limit of sulfur content can not exceed the standard, the impact has, but not big, coke side environmental protection investment tens of millions, desulfurization and denitrification are ok
 
How to make money:
 
Electricity price - comprehensive about 0.4 yuan, feel coal price high concussion
 
Alumina - find alumina hard to fall
 
Carbon: the gap is mainly in shandong, with only 20% self - supply rate
 
Carbon enterprise
 
The environment is very strict:
 
1. There are environmental protection procedures and 2
 
If the air quality is not up to standard, the production will be reduced
 
Inspection method: check online data, reports, irregular and unscheduled fourth quarter may be monitored?
 
Current shutdown status
 
Last year, there was a total stop in zhengzhou, while gongyi (the city directly under the central government of henan province) was restricted to production.
 
The winter is over and profits are now recovering.
 
Environmental cost (about 50,000 tons of carbon enterprises as an example) : more than 4 million yuan in total, operating costs about 1 million yuan per year
 
More than 1 million desulphurisation [mainly bad petroleum coke has high sulfur content, and good petroleum coke has been exported]
 
Petroleum coke purification: 600,000-700,000
 
Testing equipment 500,000
 
Production and reproduction cost:
 
Stop once, lose more than 1 million directly, still have manual capital money to wait; If shut down frequency is high, think no more
 
Capacity creation and transfer:
 
Anode capacity is shifting to the northwest, but no petroleum coke, no coal tar pitch
 
Henan will not again batch carbon plant, now ordinary do not approve, as long as the electrolytic aluminum supporting only approved
 
Investment in the construction of a new 100,000 ton carbon plant capital: private enterprises invest 160 million a year to put into production
 
Downstream processing enterprise
 
Environmental impact:
 
The main pollution is smelting, ingot casting
 
Add 巟 downstream aluminum production enterprises in the extensive indeed in different regional level is differ, zhengzhou particularly severe
 
However, the situation of practical orders is still improving. After enterprises actively build environmental protection equipment, large enterprises resume their consumption, while small enterprises are still partially affected
 
Current environmental status:
 
Orange alert stop 30%, red alert stop 50%, first alarm, aluminum melt all stop, no exact completion date.
 
This estimate was completed on March 15. According to the request of the environmental protection bureau, large and small enterprises will increase their investment in environmental protection
 
New changes in the downstream: order transfer or changes in the original data make the production limit have little impact on the overall downstream demand
 
Due to the good orders, but limited regional consumption in henan, local orders flow to shandong
 
Direct sale of intermediate link data consumption to prevent pollution
 
Export orders have increased, but not in a spurt
 
warehouse
 
Outbound condition: due to the influence of downstream environmental protection, the outbound quantity is not as good as the same period last year, but this week the situation is better than last week, and the outbound quantity is increased
 
Transportation: railway transportation, xinjiang to gongyi railway freight about 400 yuan, the later freight is expected to be reduced by about 25%
 
Delivery warehouse problem:
 
Stocks are simply full - as predicted last year when public Tours are affected by environmental protection
 
The demand for the delivery warehouse is large - it wants to expand capacity, but the staff will adjust to operate for a period of time
 
Chongqing delivery warehouse problem: now the large part of the operation is normal, zhongji may be put in place due to the delivery problem, and it needs to be inspected. But it is estimated that the final opening will be made, and the NDRC went to Shanghai to explain it
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