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Aluminum has long been bearish aluminum prices rebound highe

inputtime: 2018-07-13 09:03
At present, the aluminum base plane has been empty for a long time.
 
China's electrolytic aluminium starts a year continue to rise, early in 2016 starts at just 78%, to the lowest in recent years, with higher prices rebound, electrolytic aluminium starts rising fast, rose to 85.4% in January 2017. Global and Chinese aluminum production rose 10% and 19% in January 2017 from a year earlier.
 
For valuation, according to our budget, if USES the self-provided power plant, wood grain transfer printing furnace current electrolytic aluminium gross profit of 2000 yuan/tons, undervalued in recent months continues to weaken, the spot valuation slightly undervalued. In futures, the forward structure of the lme's monthly spread was maintained, with spot aluminum linked to the March 8 contract at a discount of $9.25 a tonne. The monthly price difference between Shanghai and aluminum is a positive structure. On March 8, the spot price was uniformly discounted by 155 yuan/ton. Combined with spot and futures, the current Shanghai aluminum futures price is valuation neutral.
 
In terms of driving, the inventory of the two major trading houses has stabilized recently, the social inventory of profile shaping machines has increased significantly, and the short-term inventory consumption ratio is slightly above the historical median value, driving down slightly. The current inventory of 221,000 tonnes of aluminium in the previous period has risen by more than 100,000 tonnes since the start of the year. On March 8, LME stocks were 2,101,000 tonnes, down about 100,000 tonnes since the start of the year. The current domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 1,122,000 tons, up more than 700,000 tons since the beginning of the year. In general, the current general aluminum inventory drive intention.
 
From the perspective of short-term valuation drivers, the price of aluminum in the period of time is still in the valuation neutral state, driving slightly downward state. Considering the continuous increase of the opening rate and the rapid increase of inventory, the fundamental surface is relatively empty. On the upstream side, the dollar appreciates, the exchange rate of the country where the mining enterprises are located depreciates, and there is room for the bauxite capital to fall. In the middle reaches, a large number of low cost production capacity will enter the cost curve of smelting, which will greatly reduce the cost curve of smelting. In addition, it is estimated that the supply growth of electrolytic aluminum in 2017 will be high, showing a surplus. Downstream, demand growth is expected to slow this year from last year. It is estimated that aluminum prices have some room to fall.
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